Big show this year with a lot of parcel lockers. I counted almost 30 companies offering lockers. That is a lot and indicates a trend towards unattended delivery.

Does it show a trend towards Out of Home delivery as well?
If so, it looks like the non-agnostic lockers will prevail. The lockers of the major operators are getting ever smaller and smaller (around 20 compartments), which makes shared lockers impossible, or at least less intelligent, as the drop rate in small, shared lockers will only be 1 to 2 parcels per stop per carrier.
With ever smaller public lockers, it is hard to see lockers solve the problem of lack of drivers. Again, the drop rates are moving towards a normal stop, so the combination of finding location, the cost of locations and the questionable drop rate increase, make lockers look like a dead end. 
Agnostic public locker companies will have a hard time establishing the density required to play a role.
(The Last Mile Experts’ OOH Report 2022, show an increase in locations, but looking at the locker sizes and deducting the residential lockers in the report, a decrease of OOH capacity against the parcel volume growth in 2020/2021 is easy to see.)

A new trend?
I must have talked to some 50% of all manufacturers at the show, and I registered a trend towards residential lockers. Lack of locations (ever smaller lockers), and the refusal to open all the non-agnostic lockers makes residential lockers / boxes with dedicated users an obvious ”new” trend, and even traditional locker manufacturers were introducing residential parcel boxes at this year’s show.

Sustainability – a trend or just greenwashing
That OOH locations can be, but hardly ever are sustainable, is no longer challenged. There is more knowledge of the generation of emissions and a profound wish for real sustainability, where residential parcel boxes / lockers are the best choice.

My conclusions:
There will be many last mile delivery solutions in the future but the lack of locations for public lockers in Western Europe make public lockers a solution which cannot cope with the future volumes. Public lockers will get their place on the last mile but will remain a niche solution.

Residential lockers and boxes, the obvious solution which scales all the way, are entering the market. I believe we will see more and more residential boxes/ lockers. Most new buildings plan with lockers and the environment would benefit from old building being equipped with boxes / lockers as well.

Sustainability will become the driver over the next years. First and last mile solutions, circular packaging, and consolidated delivery (white label) will be regulated by local councils and governments, with the first cities / countries to introduce legislation within the next 24 month.