In the light of lack of people and the enormous progress in #drone and #robotics, I am asked more and more often about when drone and robots are going to take over the last mile in B2C.
My answer has been unchanged for years. NEVER!
I do believe the technology for both types will reach a perfection suited for last mile sometimes soon, robots more than drones, and I do believe the legal problems will be solved over time. The danger of a couple of thousands of drones falling from the skies daily (worldwide) will one day be seen as collateral damage, as will robots which causes traffic accidents. (As with cars today)
I do see one major and to my knowledge a non-solvable problem for both types of transport. The weather will keep both drones and robots grounded X days a year in most parts of the northern hemisphere. (See video)
And every time there is a flooding, X% of the robots will disappear or be damaged beyond repair. (Rare, but will happen)
Drones need space for landing, a space which widens with the force of the wind and trees and building nearby making it even more tricky to land. (The whole landing infrastructure in the cities is a big stumbling stone for drones)
Combine the weather with the peak season, Black Friday to Christmas, a bad weather period, and drones and robots becomes a no go for normal B2C delivery.
(In the news today was that UPS needs 100,000 drivers for the 2023 peak season. Calculated in drones / robots, that would be minimum 500,000 to 1,000,000 drones and robots extra just for the peak season, and a loading structure which can cope with that extra volume.)
The contingency plan for bad weather will be to have huge warehouses for storing parcels which due to weather cannot be delivered and / or keep the current system with drivers and vans and a different loading structure in reserve, something which is not going to happen as it would be far too expensive.
Other news was that Uber and Nuro have signed a ten-year contract to develop a robot for food deliveries. Do you really expect Walmart and Co. to go for a solution which cannot deliver in case of bad weather, which it when most consumers really go for home delivery?
Or to wait 2 hours for your pizza because the robot is having weather problems?
And please calculate the number of drones and robots required once we reach one parcel per household per day! Staggering numbers.
Am I misinformed? Please give me your opinion on the above issues.
(By the way. The Starship robots are really cute!)
Please do not misunderstand me. We are involved in both drones and robots, but in the special, urgent sector, where both types, but mainly drones, will be big. Use cases for robots are out there as well, but maybe not so obvious cases as with drones.
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Jesper Okkels
Founder