Predictions for 2023

After Corona and a year where most predictions went up in smoke, it is now possible to start predicting 2023 with less uncertainty.

Macroeconomics:

1.     Energy prices and inflation will go down. The temperature of the current winter will be decisive for how much and how fast
2.     Boosted by the high energy prices, green energy is booming and will remain on a high growth path even after the energy prices have normalised
3.     Most companies have adopted to the new normal of having a raging war in Ukraine and is slowly getting back to business as usual
4.     Logistic chains are getting back on track, but with uncertainty around the Covid situation in China
5.     Depending on country, ecommerce is coming back of the growth track, but a couple of countries will still experience negative growth compared to 2021. (UK and USA)

Ecommerce and the ecommerce logistics:

1.     More and more cities will put restrictions on delivery traffic, thereby also changing the B2B deliveries. This will change both first and last mile operations
2.     Bike deliveries will increase
3.     Electrification of HGVs and LGVs will progress
4.     Micro depots, the nightmare triggered by the dream of bike deliveries, will NOT see a breakthrough. They are too expensive to establish and to operate. Alternatives must be found
5.     Micro hubs outside of the city centers will start coming and cities will push for consolidated B2B deliveries into the cities from the hubs
6.     Legislation around greenwashing will pick up
7.     The secondhand segment will stop growing but stay higher than before the Ukrainian war
8.     Circular packaging will grow, not only because of legislation, but because, if executed correctly, it is cheaper
9.     DTC will keep growing
10.  Standards and norms for emission calculations will develop and become standard for all claims around sustainability
11.  As ecommerce picks up again, OOH locations / capacities will have trouble keeping up with parcel volume growth, as was the case before the Ukrainian war.

The impact of many of the predictions will differ from country to country. 
Ecommerce market share, share of perishable foods, housing type differences from country to country, and of course the basic condition that inflation / energy prices must go down, will decide on speed and dept of these developments.